Monday, January 31, 2011

Afraid to Show Their Faces

So in the meeting with the governor, the subject comes up of the assassination the day before of the deputy governor.  This latest assassination campaign isn't novel.  Five or six years ago, the Taliban went after local religious leaders.  They killed three dozen or so mullahs and members of the Ulema Council in the Kandahar area.  Similarly they (and the Soviets before them) have had an ongoing campaign of killing off village elders.  It's a pretty good way of getting rid of opponents and scaring the bejesus out of the ones left standing.  So in the past year or so, especially within Kandahar city itself, the insurgents have been going after government officials.  They've killed two deputy mayors and the deputy governor (and it's not limited to Kandahar - they killed the governor of Kunduz last fall), but even more intimidating is the fact that they kill police chiefs, policemen, teachers, city clerks - anyone affiliated with official government institutions.  It's the principal reason why the Afghan government has such a hard time convincing bureaucrats to go to regions like Kandahar to work, and somehow, the $40/month "danger pay" doesn't seem to draw a huge crowd.  I don't think anyone knows the real number of assassinations, but it's well over one hundred in the past few months in Kandahar alone.  Anyway, so just before this shura, the governor says, "We are Muslims.  We believe in after death.  The Prophet died; kings and presidents die; all die.  So we go on."  We go on to the meeting room, and there are 30 or so elders like the ones pictured.  And when the cameras come out - clips of this will be shown on Afghan television - nearly half of them pull their turbans or cloaks or shawls or other cloth over their faces, and keep their faces hidden for the entire meeting.  That's a pretty good indicator of whether the insurgents' intimidation campaign is working.  There's a lot of talk that this is a battle of "hearts and minds," and that part of the debate is whether the Taliban or the moderates represent "true Islam," so we have to convince regular Afghans that the insurgents are anti-Islam.  I think that's completely misguided.  I don't believe any but the most deluded Afghans think killing a teacher or blowing up a supermarket is justifiable in the name of Islam.  I think the fundamental propaganda war is over security: the insurgents are in effect saying, We can kill you, and the Americans can't stop us.  They will one day leave, and we will still be here, and if you collaborate with them, we will kill you.  That's their message.  And until and unless we can prove them wrong, we have lost this particular messaging war.  That's what I think.  Now, that said, you've gotta admire the old whitebeards who know they're being filmed meeting with Americans and with the government and know that this makes them targets, and their attitude is a big up-yours to the insurgents.

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