While killing Osama Bin Laden has undoubted symbolic value, you could make a very strong case that it will have little effect on the course of the insurgency - or more accurately, insurgencies - in Afghanistan. Very, very few of the people blowing things up here are really al Qaeda. However, if the story in the link below is true:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/taliban-chief-has-disappeared-in-pakistan-20110524-1f1dt.html
- not that I'm vouching for this news source - that would be a different kettle of fish. Remove Mullah Omar from the equation, and that will indeed affect the morale and will to fight of many insurgents; it will affect recruiting; it may spur some, especially the insurgents whose families are still in Afghanistan, to seek to reintegrate. And if you get greater numbers of fighters reintegrating, that increases the chances that higher-level leaders will consider reconciliation and peace talks. I find equally implausible the claims in the story that Pakistan has no indication that Mullah Omar is in Pakistan and the Taliban assertion that Mullah Omar is in Afghanistan directing military operations. So we will see.
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