On the mountains going south to Kandahar. It rained the night before we went, so although there was of course no snow in Kandahar itself, at least the sky had been blown clear, and it was a very nice blue for most of the day. Anyway, this was the most snow I've seen south of Kabul. It won't be enough for the spring; everyone is predicting that this winter's drought is going to be devastating for crops. And that also means it's going to be a good year for poppy. One of the recurring themes I hear is that poppy growing isn't because the farmers are evil opium addicts - it's a crop that grows well even if water is sparse and, most importantly in a country that has only a minimal road network in the best of times, and none at all when violence cuts off access to markets outside the farmer's own district - poppy keeps a long time. It's a form of investment bank for rural families; you in effect have ready savings if you have a store of opium, and all you have to do is wait for the time to sell. That's one reason why it's so difficult to eradicate production. Another, of course, is standard supply and demand - prices soar when production falls, thus incentivizing everyone to grow it some more. I didn't see any poppy fields on this trip to Kandahar, but of course, it's not poppy season right now.
Monday, January 31, 2011
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